Will INC make a comeback in Gujarat?
The Congress gave a mighty scare to the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha election, coming within touching distance to breaking through politically one of the most significant state in the country. Five years later, the Congress’s campaign is struggling to take off and the rise of Aam Admi Party is complicating matters worse for the Congress.
Gujarat has traditionally seen a two-horse race between the BJP and Congress but old equations are expected to change with the arrival of AAP. Initial polls by C-Voter indicate that the AAP is expected to poll around 17% votes, causing a massive split in the anti-BJP vote in the state.
While the Congress has trailed the BJP by substantial margins, it had polled a large majority of anti-BJP, indicating a high Index of Opposition Unity (IOU). In 2017, the BJP polled 49% votes while the Congress got 42%, INC got around 82% of the anti-BJP vote. In 2012, the BJP polled 48% while the Congress polled 42%, INC getting around 81% of the anti-BJP vote.
Vote share numbers put out by the C-Voter survey indicates that the Congress is losing around 10% of its votes and may have to settle for around 32% while the BJP too will suffer a mild decline from 49% in 2017 to about 46%. The Congress’ share in the Opposition vote is expected to go down to around 60% (from 80% plus) while AAP is expected to get around 30% of the anti-BJP vote.
Lower IOU scores means that the BJP is expected to make significant gains because of the split in the anti-BJP vote, helping it cross the 140-seat mark, a jump of nearly 40 seats over the 99 seats it had won in the 2017 when the Congress came fairly close by winning 77 seats in a house of 182.
The Congress had managed to make the BJP sweat it out in Gujarat mainly due to the extensive campaign by former Congress president Rahul Gandhi, the coordination abilities of late Ahmed Patel and the hard work put by Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot who oversaw the campaign in the state with late Rajiv Satav. Young guns like Paresh Dhanani, Hardik Patel and others added to the euphoria generated by the party in the first state election after Prime Minister Narendra Modi moved to national politics
Things couldn’t be more different in 2022. Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi, who visited as many as 27 temples during the 2017 campaign, is on a Bharat Jodo Yatra and unlikely to campaign in the state. Ahmed Patel and Rajiv Satav passed away and Ashok Gehlot is busy in firefighting in his home state. The youth brigade of the Congress too has disintegrated, and the party does not seem to have any leaders who can effectively take on the BJP.
Things couldn’t be more different in 2022. Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi, who visited as many as 27 temples during the 2017 campaign, is on a Bharat Jodo Yatra and unlikely to campaign in the state. Ahmed Patel and Rajiv Satav passed away and Ashok Gehlot is busy in firefighting in his home state. The youth brigade of the Congress too has disintegrated, and the party does not seem to have any leaders who can effectively take on the BJP.
Those who have visited the state in the last few months indicate that there is substantial anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP government, but it does seem to be making too much impact on the votes polled by the BJP. The survey indicates that the BJP is still able to retain 90% plus votes from 2017. This may go down as we get closer to the election, but it seems unlikely that the Congress would post any significant gains unless it changes its game.
Losing ground to AAP is not what the Congress would have wanted as it prepares to unseat the BJP in the ensuring 2024 Lok Sabha election. Beating the BJP on Prime Minister’s home turf would have been critical to get some momentum going but data from the survey indicates that things are not looking good for the Congress. BJP is expected to slip close to the 40 per cent mark and may even go below the 40% mark but with the anti-BJP vote scattered, the BJP seems to be in a good position to benefit from lower IOU.
The Gujarat election is an important event in the election calendar leading to the 2024 Lok Sabha election and the Congress needs a definitive shift in political mood and narrative in the state in the coming months. With Rahul Gandhi expected to be away, the Congress would almost need a miracle to get back to where it was in the 2017 polls.
